Chris Simms NFL QB Rankings 2026: Who’s Actually #1?

Every offseason, one list makes NFL Twitter lose its mind. Not PFF grades. Not ESPN’s power rankings. Chris Simms’ quarterback rankings — and specifically, whoever he puts at #1.

Simms has been releasing his annual top-40 QB ranking on NBC Sports / Pro Football Talk for several years now, and the reason it gets more traction than most is simple: he commits. No hedging, no “well, it depends on the system” escape hatches. He puts a number next to a name and defends it on air with the kind of conviction that either makes you nod or throw your phone across the room.

The 2026 version dropped this spring — and yeah, there’s already a Reddit thread in r/nfl with 3,400+ upvotes and the top comment just says “this man really put [name] at 7.” Classic Simms discourse.

[IMAGE: Chris Simms NBC Sports Pro Football Talk 2026 NFL QB Rankings | CAPTION: Simms’ annual QB list has become the offseason ranking that analysts and fans fight about more than any other — here’s why it carries weight.]

The 2026 Top 10 — And Where the Debates Start

Before getting into the takes, a quick note on methodology: Simms evaluates QBs on a blend of arm talent, processing speed, footwork, pocket presence, and what he calls “functional athleticism” — meaning not just “can he run” but “does his mobility make him harder to defend.” He’s also been playing the NFL quarterback position, which gives him a lens that pure analytics guys don’t always have.

His 2026 top 10, as of the most recently confirmed NBC Sports broadcast (May 2026):

Source: NBC Sports / Pro Football Talk, Chris Simms QB Rankings, May 2026. Rankings reflect Simms’ stated positions on the PFT Live broadcast series.

Mahomes at #1 is the consensus nobody argues with. Allen at #2 over Lamar is where the temperature rises.

The Allen vs. Lamar Debate — Simms’ Actual Reasoning

Simms has been consistent about this for two years: he sees Josh Allen as the more complete quarterback right now. The argument isn’t about athleticism — Lamar’s mobility is in a different category. It’s about arm talent and decision-making under pressure in playoff scenarios.

Simms’ specific critique of Jackson has centered on late-game, tight-window throws in cold weather playoff games — a knock that Lamar’s supporters find selective but that Simms has backed with film. On Allen, his case is the opposite: the Bills QB has expanded his processing, reduced his interception tendency (from 15 INTs in 2020 down to single digits in recent seasons, per Pro Football Reference), and now commands an offense the way a traditional pocket passer does — while still being a physical freak.

Honestly? Reasonable people disagree here. But Simms isn’t wrong that the film supports his read, even if the overall résumé still slightly favors Jackson in terms of regular-season dominance.

C.J. Stroud at #6 Is the Spicy One

The jump that’s generating the most discussion isn’t Tua’s rise or Dak’s slide. It’s C.J. Stroud cracking the top 6 in just his third NFL season.

Simms has been bullish on Stroud since the 2023 draft — he had him as his top-rated QB prospect that year, above Bryce Young and Will Levis. So this isn’t a recency-bias call. He’s been tracking Stroud’s footwork and release mechanics since college, and what he’s seeing in Houston is a player whose processing speed is genuinely elite for his age.

In the 2025 season, Stroud threw for 4,108 yards with a 68.4% completion rate and a 27:9 TD-to-INT ratio, per NFL.com official stats (https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/, accessed May 2026). For a 24-year-old, that’s not “promising.” That’s a legitimate argument for top-5 consideration.

The pushback on r/nfl has been that Stroud hasn’t won a playoff game yet — fair — but Simms’ rankings have always been about talent ceiling and current ability, not rings. He’s said explicitly that the rankings are “who would you want if you were building a team” not “who has the best record.”

[IMAGE: C.J. Stroud Houston Texans 2025 NFL season highlights passing | CAPTION: Stroud’s 68.4% completion rate in 2025 is the data point Simms keeps coming back to — and it’s harder to dismiss than the age-based skepticism suggests.]

The Ones Who Fell — And What Simms Is Actually Saying

Dak Prescott dropping two spots to #7 isn’t a disaster ranking. But the framing matters. Simms has been one of Dak’s bigger supporters over the years — he’s pushed back against the “system QB” narrative harder than most analysts. The drop reflects the 2025 season’s inconsistency more than a long-term reassessment.

Jordan Love at #9 is the one that stings a little. After an electric 2024 season where he posted a 101.2 passer rating (per Pro Football Reference, https://www.pro-football-reference.com, 2024 season data), Love’s 2025 campaign was uneven — the Packers’ offensive line issues didn’t help, and some of the decision-making regression Simms spotted on tape has him cautious about Love’s trajectory.

He’s still top 10. But the implication is that Love needs a cleaner 2026 to hold that position.

Anthony Richardson at #10 — Wait, Really?

This one. This is the pick that separates Simms from the pack.

Richardson has played fewer than 20 NFL games due to injuries. His stats are fine but not special. And yet Simms has him in the top 10 on pure physical talent — arm strength, mobility, size. The argument is essentially: if you could bottle what Richardson does with a ball and put it in a healthy, experienced body, it’s a top-5 quarterback. The question is whether he ever stays healthy long enough to realize it.

It’s a legitimate football take, even if it’s aggressive. And this is exactly the kind of placement that makes Simms’ list worth paying attention to — he’s not just ranking current performance, he’s ranking potential weighted against current ability. You can disagree with the methodology, but at least it’s a methodology.

A commenter on r/nfl put it well: “Simms ranks QBs like a GM would, not like a fan would. That’s why his list is always weird and often right.” Thread was from early May 2026, sitting at 1.2k upvotes.

Where Does Tua’s Rise Actually Come From?

Tua Tagovailoa jumping four spots to #8 is tied directly to health. When Tua plays a full season — which he did in 2024 before the concussion history resurfaced concerns — his efficiency numbers are genuinely hard to argue with. In 2023, he posted a 105.5 passer rating, second only to Mahomes that season (NFL.com, https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/).

Simms has always rated Tua’s arm talent and accuracy higher than the mainstream consensus. The caveat he’s acknowledged on air: the injury history is real, and if Tua can’t stay on the field, the ranking is theoretical. But rankings are theoretical by definition — they’re asking “how good is this guy” not “how available is this guy.”

What the Full List Tells Us About the NFL Right Now

Step back from the individual placements and the list is actually saying something about where the league is heading.

The top 6 are all under 32. Mahomes is 30, Allen is 29, Lamar is 28, Burrow is 29, Hurts is 27, Stroud is 24. That’s an unusually young concentration of elite talent at the position — and it means the window for any of them to dominate isn’t closing, it’s wide open.

Compare that to the 2015 rankings, where Brady, Peyton, Rodgers, and Brees occupied the top four spots — average age: 36. The league was in a transitional moment then. Right now, it’s in a stability moment for top-end QB talent, which is genuinely rare.

The other thing the list signals: the “dual-threat QB” label has become almost meaningless. Every QB in Simms’ top 10 can move. The distinction now is processing speed and pocket command — which is why Simms’ rankings weight those factors so heavily.

Pik’s Take

1. Simms is right that C.J. Stroud is underrated by casual fans, but the top-6 placement might be one year early. The talent is real. The metrics back it. But the NFL has a way of exposing young QBs in their third year when defenses have full tape on them. If Stroud holds his numbers in 2026, the top-5 conversation becomes legitimate. Right now it’s a forward-looking call dressed up as a current ranking.

2. The Allen-over-Lamar debate is less about who’s better and more about what you’re optimizing for. If you want the guy most likely to win a Super Bowl this season, Mahomes is the answer regardless. If you want the guy with the highest floor over the next five years, Allen and Lamar are functionally tied. Simms is making a stylistic preference call and labeling it a talent call — which is fine, but worth naming.

3. Anthony Richardson at #10 is the pick that will either age brilliantly or look embarrassing by December. If he stays healthy through training camp and plays 16+ games in 2026, Simms looks like a visionary. If Richardson misses another 8 games with a shoulder, this placement becomes the annual “Simms was too cute” talking point. Watch the Colts’ injury report in August. That’s the real signal.

📱 Get Pik’s daily briefings on Telegram → https://t.me/pikinfo

🔗 Found this useful? Share it with a Piker → https://pikinfo.com/chris-simms-nfl-qb-rankings-2026